PumpMarket0 live | 0.0 SOL pooled⌕/
MarketsHow it worksAboutRules$PUMPMARKET
PumpMarket
CACOMING SOON
Markets0 SOL in pools

Prediction markets on KOL tweets.Pick a side. Win SOL when you call it right.

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open markets
0
SOL in pools
0
fee on winnings
3%
your stakes
0
How it works

From tweet to payout.

Every market is a measurable question about public posts, with the rules fixed before a single stake lands.

STEP 1

Choose a measurable event

Rules fixed before betting

An exact account, post type and UTC window. Betting closes before the observation period ends, and the rules never change once the market opens.

STEP 2

Pick YES or NO

Pooled stakes · variable return

Your SOL stays in the pool until the market settles. Pool percentages show where stakes sit, not the true chance of winning. There is no early cash-out.

STEP 3

Verify, then settle

Evidence + challenge window

After evidence review, winners recover their stakes and share the losing pool, less a 3% fee on winnings. Losers lose their stakes; void markets return stakes.

The payout arithmetic

A stake on the winning side gets its own SOL back plus a slice of the losing pool, proportional to its share of the winning pool.

your share of the winning poolstake ÷ (winning pool + stake)
winningsshare × losing pool
fee3% of winnings only
you receivestake + winnings − fee

The slip on the markets page runs exactly this arithmetic on whatever you type, against the live pool sizes.

Try it

SOL
SOL
SOL
About PumpMarket

Prediction markets for the trenches.

Bet SOL on measurable questions about public posts: an exact count, a verified mint address, or which account posts more. Every market settles on archived evidence, with a proof link and a challenge window before winners are paid.

What a market can ask

tweet countN+ originals in a window
will they post it?a specific, checkable post
KOL vs KOLwho posts more
neveranything unverifiable

What it never does

change the rulesnever, once open
early cash-outnone
settle without proofnever
fee on lossesnone

Handles are display labels; results are checked against the account itself. No affiliation with the featured accounts. Not affiliated with Pump.fun. Not available in restricted regions.

Rules

Deadlines, evidence & refunds.

The same rules apply to every market on the board. The market you have open in the slip is shown against them.

Settlement

Every result is settled by the PumpMarket team with a public proof link — the post URL or a screenshot showing the post ID, account and UTC timestamp.

Deleted and edited posts

A deleted post counts only if its qualifying record was archived before deletion. Repeated records of the same post ID count once. Edits do not create new posts.

Challenge period

After the observation window ends, the result and its evidence are published. Challenges are open for 24 hours and no payout happens before review. A dispute left unresolved after 48 hours voids the market.

Void and refund

Stakes are returned without a platform fee if evidence is incomplete, the account becomes inaccessible during the window, a dispute stays unresolved, or one side has no stake at close. Network transaction costs are not refunded.

Counting

Replies, quote posts and reposts are excluded unless a market says otherwise. Each unique post ID counts once. Window starts are inclusive and ends are exclusive, in UTC.

$PUMPMARKET

The house token.

The coin behind the board.

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Your wallet

Connect a wallet to read your balance and your open stakes.

FAQ

Where does the fee go?

Three percent of winnings only — never of a stake and never of a loss. It is taken when a winning position is paid out.

Can I cash out early?

No. A stake stays in the pool until the market settles or voids. That is what keeps the pool percentages meaningful.

Do the percentages mean probability?

No. They show where the stakes sit. A market at 85% YES simply means 85% of the SOL in that pool is on YES.

What happens on a void?

Every stake is returned without a platform fee. Only the network transaction cost is not refunded.

Wallets

Phantom, Solflare and Backpack. Nothing is signed until you approve it in your wallet, and if a step does not complete, nothing is spent.